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AGENDA AND VIDEO

April 21- 23, 2016
London, UK

THURSDAY, APRIL 21

18:00-19:00 PM GMT +1
The Complexities of Today’s Security Challenges
The Director of the FBI has said that the Bureau has counterterrorism investigations underway in all 50 states, underscoring the gravity of the “insider” terrorism threat in the United States. Simultaneously, terrorists from abroad, especially “foreign fighters” from among ISIL’s ranks in Iraq/Syria, are seeking to enter Western countries, including the United States, to carry out attacks. Complicating matters further, technology innovation is advancing so quickly that terrorists are leveraging these advancements, making it easier for them to plot and plan undetected by counterterrorism professionals. Director Comey will address the complexity of today’s security challenges and how and the FBI is working both at home and with global partners to confront them.

JAMES COMEY, Director, Federal Bureau of Investigation, United States
MODERATOR: BROOKE MASTERS, Companies Editor, Financial Times

19:00 – 20:oo GMT + 1
Opening Reception

FRIDAY, APRIL 22, 2016

8:00 – 9:00 GMT + 1
Registration & Breakfast
Attendees may pick up their registration packets prior to our first session at Lancaster House. Packets will contain a master program, as well as a Forum badge, which will be required to enter any Forum event. Registration packets will be available for pick-up through April 23rd.

9:00 – 9:05 GMT + 1
Welcome & Opening Remarks

CLARK ERVIN, Director, Homeland Security Program, The Aspen Institute; Partner, Squire Patton Boggs

9:05 – 9:50 GMT + 1
NATO/Russia: Cold War Redux?
Putin’s Russia is acting much like the Soviet Union: invading and annexing its weaker neighbors; probing NATO’s defenses in the air and at sea for vulnerabilities; building up its military; and violating arms control treaties. Are we in a new “Cold War,” and, if so, is the alliance up to the challenge? America’s Ambassador to NATO, a warrior-diplomat, and two veteran Russia watchers, will attempt to divine Russia’s intentions, assess its capabilities, and analyze NATO’s strengths and weaknesses in this time of unsettling uncertainty.

SAMUEL GREENE, Director, Russia Institute, King’s College London
DOUGLAS LUTE, Permanent Representative of the United States to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
RODERIC LYNE, Deputy Chairman, Chatham House; Former Ambassador of the United Kingdom to the Russian Federation
MODERATOR: JOHN GEARSON, Director, Centre for Defence Studies, King’s College London

9:05 – 10:00 GMT + 1
Break

10:00 – 10:45 GMT + 1
Countering Violent Extremism: The Security Challenge of Our Time

How does a person become radicalized? Once radicalized, what leads someone from radical thinking to violent action? What works to counter extremism? Three noted experts grapple with these elemental questions that lie at the heart of an effective counterterrorism strategy.

RICHARD BARRETT, Senior Vice President, The Soufan Group; Former Chairman, United Nations Counter Terrorism Implementation Task Force
GILLES DE KERCHOVE, Counterterrorism Coordinator, European Union
MARK SIMMONDS, Chief Operating Officer, Counter-Extremism Project
MODERATOR: CIARÁN DEVANE, CEO, British Council

10:45 – 11:00 GMT + 1
Break

11:00 – 11:45 GMT + 1
Reflections from the Intelligence World

President Obama famously dismissed ISIL a couple of years ago as a “JV team,” and now it is at the very top of the lengthening list of American, and Western, security concerns. In retrospect, the Administration’s mistranslation of the Russian word for “reset” can be taken as a metaphor for a fundamental misunderstanding of Putin’s intentions and Russia’s capabilities. While the invasion of Iraq in search of WMD is the most infamous, there are numerous examples of “getting it wrong” on fundamental questions of intelligence and, thus, policy. Two noted intelligence experts discuss the challenges facing analysts in today’s ever more complicated security environment.

JOHN MCLAUGHLIN, Former Acting and Deputy Director, Central Intelligence Agency, United States; Distinguished Practitioner in Residence, John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
JOHN SCARLETT, Former Chief, Secret Intelligence Service, United Kingdom
MODERATOR: GORDON CORERA, Security Correspondent, BBC

11:45 – 12:00 GMT + 1
Break

12:00 – 12:45 GMT + 1
Bright Spots and Dark Clouds: Promise and Peril in Latin America

After decades of civil war and descent into the abyss of narcotrafficking, Colombia is stable and prosperous. Meanwhile, Venezuela is in political and economic chaos, and Mexico is riven by corruption and lawlessness. Three experts will discuss the challenges in these countries in particular and in the region as a whole.

DANIEL LANSBERG-RODRIGUEZ, Director for Latin America, Greenmantle LLC
EDUARDO MEDINA-MORA, Justice, Supreme Court of Justice of the Nation, Mexico
JUAN CARLOS PINZÓN, Ambassador of Colombia to the United States; Former Minister of Defense, Colombia
MODERATOR: VINICIUS MARIANO DE CARVALHO, Lecturer, King’s Brazil Institute, King’s College London

12:45 – 13:45 GMT +1
Lunch

13:45 – 14:30 GMT + 1
Rethinking Europe

Europe is at a crossroads. As discussed earlier, the continent’s security is being tested by an increasingly aggressive and assertive Russia to a degree not seen since the Cold War. As the attacks in Paris and Brussels underscore, ISIL has Europe in its sights. The civil war in Syria and the establishment there of the capital of the “Islamic State” has spawned a human and economic crisis that has serious political, economic, and social consequences for Europe. And, this is not to mention the continuing economic strains of the Eurozone and the challenges of continued political integration. These Euro-experts will explore the dimensions of these challenges in detail.

PETER AMMON, Ambassador of Germany to the United Kingdom
ROBIN NIBLETT, Director, Chatham House
ROB WAINWRIGHT, Director, Europol
MODERATOR: MATTHEW KAMINSKI, Executive Editor, POLITICO Europe

14:30 – 14:45 GMT + 1
Break

14:45 – 15:30 GMT + 1
The Continuing Struggle for Afghanistan and Indo/Pakistan Relations

The Long War in Afghanistan continues, more than a decade after the 9/11 attacks and the subsequent American invasion to dislodge the Taliban and Al Qaeda. Yet, in the wake of America’s withdrawal and NATO’s refocus on its core mission of deterring Russian aggression, the Taliban is back with a vengeance. Meanwhile, both the Taliban and Al Qaeda are still active in Pakistan, posing, respectively, a local and global security threat. This session will explore these challenges, as well as the prospect of a further rapprochement between India and Pakistan and the degree to which the Afghanistan/ Pakistan dynamic complicates that rapprochement.

SUMANTRA BOSE, Professor of International and Comparative Politics, London School of Economics; Author, Transforming India: Challenges to the World’s Largest Democracy
MICHAEL CLARKE, Former Director-General, Royal United Services Institute
HINA RABBANI KHAR, Former Foreign Minister, Pakistan
HAZRAT OMAR ZAKHILWAL, President’s Special Envoy and Ambassador of Afghanistan to Pakistan
MODERATOR: CATHERINE HERRIDGE, Chief Intelligence Correspondent, Fox News

15:30 – 15:45 GMT + 1
Break

15:45 – 16:30 GMT + 1
Homeland Insecurity

In the age of terrorism and Twitter, the “homeland” is inherently unsafe. In free societies, there are unlimited targets, and limited means of foiling plots before it’s too late. Making bad matters still worse, the “viral” nature of social media and the anonymity of the Internet make recruiting terrorists all too easy, and stopping them much, much harder. What, then, are those whose job it is to protect the “homeland” to do?

CHARLES FARR, Chairman, Joint Intelligence Council, United Kingdom
ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS, Deputy Secretary, Department of Homeland Security, United States
PAULINE NEVILLE-JONES, Member, House of Lords; Former National Security Advisor and Minister of State for Security and Counterterrorism, United Kingdom
MODERATOR: FRANK GARDNER, Security Correspondent, BBC

16:30 – 16:45 GMT + 1
Break

16:45 – 17:30 GMT + 1
Cybersecurity: The New Frontier

Cyber is the new security frontier. There is cyberwarfare, cyberterrorism, cyberespionage, and cybercrime. There are state actors, non-state actors, and “blokes in their basements.” Though cyber threats have been with us for some time, and they are growing in intensity and severity, we still lack clear rules of the road to govern how best to confront them. And, the line between offensive and defensive is blurry. This panel will attempt to make sense of this muddle.

STEWART BAKER, Partner, Steptoe & Johnson LLP; Former Assistant Secretary for Policy, Department of Homeland Security, United States
SHAMI CHAKRABARTI, National Council for Civil Liberties
MODERATOR: DAVID SANGER, Chief Washington Correspondent, The New York Times

18:30 – 19:30 GMT + 1
Reception Hosted by US Minister Elizabeth Dibble
Buses will depart Lancaster House following the day’s last session to bring participants to Wychwood House, home of the Minister of the United States Embassy in London.

SATURDAY, APRIL 23, 2016

8:30 – 9:00 GMT + 1 
Breakfast

9:00 – 9:45 GMT + 1
Defeating ISIL

The Obama Administration’s Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL and France’s National Intelligence Coordinator discuss the strategy and progress made in degrading and ultimately defeating this global scourge.

DIDIER LE BRET, National Intelligence Coordinator, France
BRETT MCGURK, Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL, United States
MODERATOR: MARK URBAN, Diplomatic and Defense Editor, BBC

9:45 – 9:50 GMT +1
Break

9:50 – 10:35 GMT + 1
Shadows Across Africa

From Boko Haram in the West to Al Shabab in East, Africa is plagued by terrorism, endangering not only the continent’s security, but the progress it has made in recent years in terms of political and economic development and social cohesion. This session will explore Africa’s security challenges and the prospects for successfully confronting them.

MOHAMED ABDULLAHI MOHAMED, Founder and Secretary-General, Tayo Political Party; Former Prime Minister, Somalia
ALEXANDER RONDOS, Special Representative for the Horn of Africa, European Union
MODERATOR: KARIN VON HIPPEL, Director-General, Royal United Services Institute

10:35 – 10:45 GMT + 1
Break

10:45 – 11:30 GMT + 1
The Nuclear Deal with Iran: The Beginning of a Fundamental Change in the Relationship with the West?

Does the nuclear deal with Iran presage a fundamental change in the relationship with the West, with the eventual cessation of support for terrorism and regional meddling as its supporters fervently hope? Or is it a discrete thing that will ultimately only enrich the country and empower it to be more of a security threat in the future, as its detractors predict? This session will discuss and debate this key question with global geopolitical implications.

SARA BAZOOBANDI, Associate Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Program, Chatham House
PETER WESTMACOTT, Former Ambassador of the United Kingdom to the United States; Senior Fellow Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
MODERATOR: DEBORAH HAYNES, Defense Editor, The Times of London

11:30 – 11:35 GMT + 1
Break

11:35 – 12:20 GMT + 1
Saber Rattling in East Asia
Much like Russia with NATO, China is building up its maritime and air capabilities in the South China Sea and testing the strength of the alliance between the United States and its key partners in the Asia Pacific. Meanwhile, North Korea continues to conduct missile tests and to threaten not only South Korea in particular and regional stability overall, but also the United States. What more must be done to confront these challenges, and is the alliance up to it?

BONNIE GLASER, Director, China Power Project, and Senior Adviser for Asia, Center for Strategic and International Studies
MASAFUMI ISHII, Ambassador of Japan to Belgium; Representative of Japan to NATO
SUNG-YOON LEE, Kim Koo-Korea Foundation Professor in Korean Studies and Assistant Professor, The Fletcher School, Tufts University
MODERATOR: GORDON CHANG, Contributor, Forbes.com; Author, The Coming Collapse of China and Nuclear Showdown: North Korea Takes on the World

12:20 – 13:00 GMT + 1
Lunch

13:00 – 13:45 GMT + 1
Counterterrorism in the Age of ISIL
President Obama and Prime Minister Cameron’s top advisors on homeland security and counterterrorism take us inside the Oval Office and 10 Downing Street to give a sense of the advice they give to the Commander-in-Chief and Head of Her Majesty’s Government each day as to the security challenges facing the US, the UK, and the world.

PADDY MCGUINNESS, Deputy National Security Advisor, United Kingdom
LISA MONACO, Deputy National Security Advisor, Assistant to the President for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism, United States
MODERATOR: KEVIN BARON, Executive Editor, Defense One

14:00 – 15:00 GMT + 1
A Conversation with the Defense Secretary
The Secretary will give us his perspective on how the Strategic Defence and Security Review will inform Britain’s response to security risks, including the terrorist threat from ISIL/Daesh and other groups; the challenges facing NATO ahead of Warsaw, including its relationship with Russia; the geopolitical challenges facing Asia-Pacific; and other issues including cyber security.

MICHAEL FALLON, Secretary of State for Defence, United Kingdom
MODERATOR: JAMES HARDING, Director of News and Current Affairs, BBC


15:00 – 16:00 GMT + 1
Closing Reception