The Weekly Leaf
This week, a historic prisoner swap involving the U.S., Russia, Belarus, Germany, Slovenia, Norway, and Poland resulted in the release of Evan Gershkovich, Paul Whelan, Alsu Kurmasheva, and Vladimir Kara-Murza from Russian prison; Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran; and the U.S. said Edmundo González defeated President Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela's presidential election.
Read more below.
This Week's Content Highlights
Features from Aspen Strategy Group Members
Joseph Nye for Project Syndicate: “AI and National Security”
Jane Harman, Eric Edelman, John M. Keane, Thomas G. Mahnken, Mara Rudman, Mariah Sixkiller, Alissa Starzak, and Roger Zakheim: Commission on the National Defense Strategy report
David Ignatius for The Washington Post: “The Mediators Struggle to Keep a Lid on a Blood Feud”
Nicholas Kristof for The New York Times: “A.I. May Save Us or May Construct Viruses to Kill Us”
Penny Pritzker at the Brookings Institution: “The Future of Ukraine’s Economic Recovery”
Jack Reed quoted by Nahal Toosi, Erin Banco, Jonathan Lemire, and Joe Gould for POLITICO: “U.S. Bets on Gaza Cease-Fire Talks as Assassinations Tilt Mideast Toward Bigger War”
Anne-Marie Slaughter and Xanthe Scharff for Project Syndicate: “Peacebuilding in the Middle East Requires Women”
Dan Sullivan quoted by Al Jazeera: “U.S. Intercepts Russian, Chinese Bombers Near Alaska: What We Know”
Lawrence Summers, Robert Zoellick, and moderator Melissa Kearney for the Aspen Economic Strategy Group: “Strengthening America’s Economic Dynamism”
Philip Zelikow interviewed by Ryan Evans for the Texas National Security Review: “Mitigating Risks in a Volatile World”
Tweet of the Week
Rising Leaders Program Highlights
Features from ASG Rising Leaders
Felicia Schwartz (‘24), Max Seddon, and Adam Samson for the Financial Times: "Journalist Evan Gershkovich Returns to U.S. in Russia Prisoner Swap"
Elliot Silverberg ('23) and Mohammed Soliman for Breaking Defense: "Don't Miss the Boat - Canada and AUKUS Should Be Partners"
Dillon Taylor (‘23) and Carrie Speranza for Government Technology & Services Coalition's Homeland Security: "The Rise of the Disaster Diplomat: A New Era for Domestic Crisis Leadership"
Helen Toner ('21) interviewed by Madhumita Murgia for Lunch with the FT: "Helen Toner on the OpenAI Coup: 'It Was About Trust and Accountability'"
Things to Know
Content Relevant to Aspen Security Forum Discussions
Sinan Ciddi for Foreign Policy: "Why Is Turkey Cozying Up to Syria"
Jack Detsch for Foreign Policy: “NATO’s New Map”
The Economist: “Will Hamas Turn from War to Politics?”
Kathrin Hille and Max Seddon for the Financial Times: "China Pushes Nuclear 'No First Use' While Expanding Its Atomic Arsenal"
Okeri Ngutjinazo, Zanem Nety Zaidi, and Wendy Bashi for DW: “Congo-Rwanda Cease-Fire: A Lasting Peace Effort?”
Joe Parkinson, Drew Hinshaw, Bojan Pancevski, and Aruna Viswanatha for The Wall Street Journal: “Inside the Secret Negotiations to Free Evan Gershkovich”
John Prendergast and Anthony Lake for Foreign Affairs: “The UAE’s Secret War in Sudan”
Carol Rosenberg for The New York Times: “Plea Deal in 9/11 Case Is Announced in War Court”
Samantha Schmidt and Matthew Hay Brown for The Washington Post: “U.S. Says Maduro Lost Venezuelan Election, Calls For Talks, Transition”
Wang Jisi, Hu Ran, and Zhao Jianwei for Foreign Affairs: "Does China Prefer Harris or Trump?"
Zia Weise for POLITICO: “EU Prepares for COP29 Showdown with China Over Climate Aid”
Heather Williams, Kari A. Bingen, and Lachlan MacKenzie for CSIS: “Why Did China and Russia Stage a Joint Bomber Exercise Near Alaska?”
From the Archives
Revisit our conversation on efforts to negotiate the release of Evan Gershkovich, Paul Whelan, and Alsu Kurmasheva with Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs Roger Carstens from the 2024 Aspen Security Forum.
Roger D. Carstens, Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs, U.S. Department of State
Moderator: Courtney Kube, National Security and Pentagon Correspondent, NBC News
Book of the Week
by Anne Applebaum
“We think we know what an autocratic state looks like: There is an all-powerful leader at the top. He controls the police. The police threaten the people with violence. There are evil collaborators, and maybe some brave dissidents.
But in the 21st century, that bears little resemblance to reality. Nowadays, autocracies are underpinned not by one dictator, but by sophisticated networks composed of kleptocratic financial structures, surveillance technologies, and professional propagandists, all of which operate across multiple regimes, from China to Russia to Iran. Corrupt companies in one country do business with corrupt companies in another. The police in one country can arm and train the police in another, and propagandists share resources and themes, pounding home the same messages about the weakness of democracy
and the evil of America.
International condemnation and economic sanctions cannot move the autocrats. Even popular opposition movements, from Venezuela to Hong Kong to Moscow, don't stand a chance. The members of Autocracy, Inc, aren't linked by a unifying ideology, like communism, but rather a common desire for power, wealth, and impunity. In this urgent treatise, which evokes George Kennan's essay calling for 'containment' of the Soviet Union, Anne Applebaum calls for the democracies to fundamentally reorient their policies to fight
a new kind of threat.”
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